The Numbers

Original Graphic. Data pulled from: 1,2,4,5 Please note this figure includes chick and adult deaths. However, almost all lead poisoning and plastic ingestion death can be attributed to chicks.

I have included the table below to give some perspective on the chart above. This table(2) was produced by a study measuring long term population decline from lead-based mortality rates. Something salient from this paper is that the generalization: long-lived species demographics are more influenced by death of older aged individual, does not necessarily apply to Laysan Albatross. They have shown this in their table, where they estimate up to a 360,000 bird population decline over 50 years. This result is from just 14,000 dead chicks. If this large population change occurred from only 14,000 chicks, the 80,000-200,000 chicks that are speculated to die from plastic will have very serious consequences for the future of the Laysan Albatross population.

What I would do as a concerned researcher: There are many estimates of mortality rates for these birds, each with wide ranges. A new study needs to be done to give more accuracy to my graph above, so that studies like the one below can prove that these birds are in serious danger. 

Table 2.   Projected number of Laysan albatross Phoebastria immutabilis added to the total population on Sand Island Midway Atoll if lead-based paint is removed and lead poisoning of chicks ends at year=0

Year post clean-up	Lead mortality=3.5% before clean-up	Lead mortality=7% before clean-up	Lead mortality=14% before clean-up
10	24 860	49 873	100 389
20	46 861	93 196	184 275
30	66 252	130 627	253 801
40	83 263	162 765	310 850
50	98 103	190 153	357 080